akoe07 (akoe07) wrote,

Betting changes since the rehearsals

I've had a quick check on how countries are ranked in terms of their chancs of qualifying, compared to their odds a month ago. Some interesting changes;

1st    BELGIUM (was 4th a month ago)
2nd   GREECE (1st)
3rd    SERBIA (6th)
4th    ALBANIA (3rd)
5th    SLOVAKIA (2nd)
6th    ICELAND (7th)
7th    MOLDOVA (8th)
8th    BELARUS (5th)
9th    BOSNIA-HERZ. (11th)
10th  RUSSIA (9th)

11th  FINLAND (12th)
12th  MALTA (13th)
13th  LATVIA (14th)
14th  ESTONIA (10th)
15th  PORTUGAL (15th)
16th  POLAND (17th)
17th  FYR MACEDONIA (16th)

So the three big gains based on the rehearsals are Belgium, Serbia and Bosnia who now replace Estonia in the Top 10. I wouldn't disagree on any of this, but I would have Portugal a lot higher.

1st   AZERBAIJAN (1st)
2nd  ARMENIA (4th)
3rd   ISRAEL (2nd)
4th  TURKEY (5th)
5th  CROATIA (6th)
6th  SWEDEN (7th)
7th  DENMARK (3rd)
8th  IRELAND (9th)
9th  ROMANIA (10th)
10th GEORGIA (11th)

11th UKRAINE (8th)
12th CYPRUS (13th)
13th LITHUANIA (12th)
14th BULGARIA (14th)
15th SWITZERLAND (15th)
16th NETHERLANDS (16th)
17th SLOVENIA (17th)

It's clear that the big loser here is Denmark slipping from 3rd to 7th. Georgia replaces Ukraine in the Top 10. Based on the rehearsals, I think Denmark is still too high and Ukraine and Cyprus could easilly displace it from the Top 10.

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