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All Kinds Of Everything for Eurovision

The build-up to the 57th Eurovision Song Contest in Baku

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Betting changes since the rehearsals
Keith SP
akoe07
I've had a quick check on how countries are ranked in terms of their chancs of qualifying, compared to their odds a month ago. Some interesting changes;

SEMI ONE
1st    BELGIUM (was 4th a month ago)
2nd   GREECE (1st)
3rd    SERBIA (6th)
4th    ALBANIA (3rd)
5th    SLOVAKIA (2nd)
6th    ICELAND (7th)
7th    MOLDOVA (8th)
8th    BELARUS (5th)
9th    BOSNIA-HERZ. (11th)
10th  RUSSIA (9th)

11th  FINLAND (12th)
12th  MALTA (13th)
13th  LATVIA (14th)
14th  ESTONIA (10th)
15th  PORTUGAL (15th)
16th  POLAND (17th)
17th  FYR MACEDONIA (16th)

So the three big gains based on the rehearsals are Belgium, Serbia and Bosnia who now replace Estonia in the Top 10. I wouldn't disagree on any of this, but I would have Portugal a lot higher.

SEMI TWO
1st   AZERBAIJAN (1st)
2nd  ARMENIA (4th)
3rd   ISRAEL (2nd)
4th  TURKEY (5th)
5th  CROATIA (6th)
6th  SWEDEN (7th)
7th  DENMARK (3rd)
8th  IRELAND (9th)
9th  ROMANIA (10th)
10th GEORGIA (11th)

11th UKRAINE (8th)
12th CYPRUS (13th)
13th LITHUANIA (12th)
14th BULGARIA (14th)
15th SWITZERLAND (15th)
16th NETHERLANDS (16th)
17th SLOVENIA (17th)

It's clear that the big loser here is Denmark slipping from 3rd to 7th. Georgia replaces Ukraine in the Top 10. Based on the rehearsals, I think Denmark is still too high and Ukraine and Cyprus could easilly displace it from the Top 10.

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Latest fan club voting

(Anonymous)
Firstly, great blog, your efforts are hugely appreciated, and hope you are having fun.

Secondly, an update on the fan club votes would be interesting now we have had a dress rehearsal, if indeed there are any new votes.

Thanks, Cally, UK.

Re: Latest fan club voting

(Anonymous)
Yep! Could you give us the lates table of OGAE!!!

Odds cannot be too accurate though especially since they have no clue on how the Jury will vote ... i think that those results reflect the televote and because of this certain songs (like Malta and Portugal) appear lower down ...

You must remember that the majority of people watching the contest on TV will not have heard the songs already, so it's difficult to predict how they will vote. At the end of the day you have to remember that bookies are in the business of making money. I pay little attention to them.

Hey, great blog--thanks! Just wondering why Azerbaijan keeps getting high scores from both fan clubs and bookers. Maybe I'm missing something, but I really can't tell what makes the Azeri entry any better than, say, the Portuguese one... Can someone tell me what's so great about Safura's song?

Clearly, the advertisements.

Azerbaijan

(Anonymous)
It's the most contemporary song and Safura is very good singer and yes, they have invested in the best coreographers, advertising, etc. I wish all the countries were putting half the effort that Azerbaijan does. If every country did the same it would just be an amazing contest. I don't understand why people criticize it. Do we really prefer countries not to give a damn instead? Well, make up your mind people!

Martin

Re: Azerbaijan

(Anonymous)
Martin, I'm with you on this 100%

Good for Denmark to be an underdog, all of a sudden! If they start to deliver, they might be in with a big chance!

:delusional:

I still think this is Belgium's to lose.

Denmark

(Anonymous)
I still think Denmark will win.It's the only tune that I, a very casual Eurovision-phile, actually remembered after it was done playing. Safura was professional but not memorable in the same way.That's the secret of their forthcoming success. Regardless of the rehearsals, they will turn out when it counts in front of the televoters and they will win,comfortably.Safura won't get the Western votes because she's trying too hard to be Rihanna, or Beyonce, or Lady Gaga, and only these ladies can be themselves.
Sorry Azerbaijan

Re: Denmark

(Anonymous)
HOORAY! Common sense prevails...

Denmark are still definitely in with a shot, no question. And qualifying won't be an issue since they'll have diaspora votes from Sweden and Norway. And I'll be voting like bejaysus in Ireland :)

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