All Kinds Of Everything for Eurovision

The build-up to the 57th Eurovision Song Contest in Baku

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The semi two conundrum - Keith's predictions
Keith SP
akoe07

Having watched the Press Rehearsal in the Press Area and the Jury Final in the Arena, there are two things that I really notice; how poor this semi-final is in comparison to the Tuesday’s first semi and the noticeable difference in audio between the Press Area and the Arena.

While the first semi had three of the worst entries of the year (Montenegro, Finland and San Marino) a case could be made for any of the others qualifying. In the second semi, at least four songs that wouldn’t have made it on Tuesday, are going to qualify.

I’m going to use my normal formula to make my final prediction, but this is a very open semi, so I have much less confidence in my list, than I had in the Tuesday list. Also with five former members of the Soviet Union and 5 former Yugoslav republics, politics and voting trend play a bigger part in compiling the list.

Step One; identify the certain qualifiers. In this semi, that’s a short list;

SERBIA is there on merit but also because neighbours and diaspora compensate for a ballad opening the show.

TURKEY has a great stage show (although a lot of it was lost in dry ice last night) and a huge diaspora vote in places like France, Germany and Netherlands, to compensate for a poor song.

UKAINE is not coming across well on camera but the song and the performer are strong and it has neighbours.

SWEDEN is getting better with every rehearsal and fans who seem besotted with this run of the mill 1990s dance track play a much bigger part in semi voting.

Step Two; eliminate the no hopers and that’s an even shorter list.

Bulgaria has killed the appeal of their dance song by not having choreography and no amount of pyros (added at the last minutes) can save a dull stage show, especially coming after Ukraine.

Slovakia has no supportive neighbours and the camerawork and performance are under-par, killing the chances of what was always a niche interest song.

So four in and six places from twelve, so the rest are basically 50/50. This is where it is essential to look at who’s voting and to remember that U.K., Germany and France all have a say in this semi.

Let’s start with former Yugoslavia; Serbia is in and at least two more from Macedonia, Slovenia, Croatia and Bosnia should make it. SLOVENIA has the least support and inexperienced singer in Eva Boto (above) but a great performance, so I’m calling this as a qualifier. BOSNIA has a lesser-known singer but a lovely ballad, a great draw and a generous diaspora, so that too is in. I’ll hold the other two for a while.

Now move to the ex-USSR, Ukraine is in, so at least two more from Belarus, Georgia, Estonia and Lithuania should make. I’m going to reverse my earlier decision and say LITHUANIA will make it. It has a good draw, a fantastic singer in Donny Montell (above) and a good stage show. Belarus goes out as it's too early and not memorable or instant enough. The other two stay on hold.

Finally, it’s “old Europe” the countries that were in the contest back in the 1970s. Sweden is in and I’ll add their neighbours NORWAY. The song is different from anything else, the routine is slick and while it sounds awful in the arena, it’s not as bad in the Press Area, and that’s the feed that people will here. I’ll eliminate Netherlands at this point, as it has a poor draw, a silly stage performance and little in the way of neighbourly support. Malta and Portugal, stay on hold.

I now have eight finalists and it’s two from Macedonia, Malta, Portugal, Croatia, Georgia and Estonia. This is the really tough part. I’m going to eliminate Croatia and Estonia as neither are really coming across well on camera. The songs are ok, but there are better things for the juries to vote for and not being in English will limit their televote appeal. I could put the remaining four in a hat and draw and two out. I am now going to eliminate Malta. The draw is bad, it has no neighbours and while the rest of the show is fine, I think the backing singer is killing it.

So two from Georgia, Portual and Macedonia and I’m now going to say “yes” to MACEDONIA. An awful draw aside, this has everything going for it. My concern is that it may not be instant enough, but Kaliopi is a fantastic performer and I expect her to clean up in the Balkans.

Portugal vs Georgia for the last place and here I’m going to letm y heart rule my head. Filipa Sousa (above) has been fantastic on every rehearsal. The song is instantly appealing and the backdrop is great. Yes, it’s old fashioned and the draw isn’t great, but if Eurovision is still a song contest, then it should be Portugal over Georgia, despite Anri’s fantastic voice and stage show.

So to re-cap in order of certainty;

Serbia

Turkey

Ukraine

Sweden

Slovenia

Bosnia-Herzegovina

Lithuania

Norway

Macedonia

Portugal

I’m on ticket distribution duty today but I’ll do a scene set for tonight’s live show before I go into the Arena.

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Remember what happened in semi 1. Songs prevailed. And Lithuania is neither a fan favourite nor it has neighbours but Belarus and Estonia. Just like Georgia only has Ukraine, Malta and Belarus. So maybe I would put the Netherlands instead of Lithuania.

I absolutely agree with you about Malta (no Italy, no Albania, no San Marino, no Cyprus) so... I think seven songs are definitely out: Malta, Belarus, Slovakia, Lithuania, Georgia, Croatia and Bulgaria.

Then...11 songs, one of those will be out. I will have to wait for the show to see but...well...

Considering how badly he's dressed and looks judging by Andrew's pictures I would exclude Estonia.

Considering your comments on the Dutch song, I would exclude the Netherlands.

Considering which one of the two appeared weaker to the juries and will appear to televoters, I would exclude Portugal or Slovenia...remember here Eva starts with at least 25/30 points - stronger than other Balkans but far less famous than Nina or Kaliopi, and it's Slovenia anyway - and Filipa with at least 20 or so (France - maybe a 12 here considering the fado link and how French know it very well, Germany, UK, Netherlands).

Considering fans at home will surely vote strongly for Loreen, if it was badly voted by juries Tooji can also be out.

Bosnia and Herzegovina is bad and boring but...they have almost all their neighbours, Turkey, and both Norway and Sweden. It's like Portugal in 2010, only a very bad song and performance can prevent them from qualifying.

UFFFF! What a suspense! Probably the most open-ended semi EVER.

Did you say that the first semi is of a higher quality than the second? That is kind of going quite heavily against the general consensus isn't it?

wow, Keith, you've got a real algorithm :)

Your list seems logical, but I can't see Portugal as a qualifier, would have Estonia instead

Why?

(Anonymous)
In theory the Portuguese entry is much better than the Estonian, so why do you say you can't see Portugal as a qualifier? Is there any specific reason not related to the song? You may be right, but can you elaborate?

Well, I think, estonian entry is much more understandable.
Fado is a complicated genre, a specific mood is needed and the whole entry must be really FANTASTIC to get people understanding it and admiring it, not just "good" or "better than estonian".

We'll see tonight, but as for now Estonia looks more likely to qualify. It doesn't mean it IS :)

And P.S. I don't like neither Portugal nor Estonia due to subjective preferences. :)

As songs, I think Portugal and Estonia are the best two ballads in the whole competition this year. But it is certainly possible to make a case for them both to miss out. Let's wait and see . . . This semi is less exciting in terms of musical variety, but it's much harder to call.

Not to argue :-), but IMHO Estonia can just get lost between so many balkan ballads and there is not enough Estonia-friendly countries in this particular semi to give enough votes for Ott to get through- high points can only be expected from Sweden really. Portugal on the other hand - usually gets some points from almost all of the countries in this semi. The tango rhythm stands out and might be enough to harvest votes of juries.


Yes, it may be so. Well, it's a really REALLY open-ended semi. Hard to make a clear prediction. :)

Remember Turkey comes right after Georgia, and that's another handicap for Anri.

It's much tougher with this one

(Anonymous)
Keith, you're just right. This semi is much tougher to predict even though the overall quality of the songs is not that great. However, my predictions are a bit different from yours.
Certain qualifiers:
Serbia
Ukraine
Turkey
Likely to qualify:
Bosnia (nabourly support and diaspora will get them through)
Lithuania ( not because of ex-USSR countries, feel that their support don't go to Baltics, but diaspora, Estonia and possibly Scandinavians + good draw, show and singer will do the job)
Macedonia ( Kaliopi is well known singer on Balkans, has a good song and strong voice)
Possible qualifiers:
Georgia ( I think it's just "crazy" enough to get through)
Portugal ( in the past most of the countries in this semi voted for Portugal, I guess the juries might also fancy Filipa)
Norway (cute guy + dance track usually do well)

So I have 9:
Serbia
Ukraine
Turkey
Bosnia
Lithuania
Macedonia
Georgia
Portugal
Norway

The 10th spot will, of course, go to Sweden, BUT I just have a gut feeling, that Sweden might be a second semi's shock, everybody see Loreen as a certain qualifier and a possible winner, but I think that the chances of Swedens entry this year are just overestimated.

Finished writing my predictions, when noticed that it was under "anonymous" and now it's on waiting list. Autchh...
So without any explanations (this time), only prediction:
Serbia
Turkey
Ukraine
Bosnia
Lithuania
Macedonia
Georgia
Portugal
Norway
Sweden

8 out of 8. Happy for Estonia and Malta - well deserved! I'll be missing Portugal though....

It's a very open semi, as you say, and I can't imagine that more than 4 or 5 places will already have been secured by the jury votes. It's all down to the performances tonight, therefore.

I agree with you that, in very open selections, cultural and diaspora voting tends to play a disproportionate part, which is why I imagine most if not all of the Balkan entries will go through . . .

I'm still hoping for Estonia, but my faith is being sorely tested :-)

Portugal

(Anonymous)
Hi Keith, thank you for choosing Portugal as one of your finalists...but, unfortunately, I don't think that is going to happen...this song even here has gone completely unnoticed, I bet if you ask someone to sing it on the street, nobody would be able to. It´s a pity because Filipa has a great voice! But this song is just forgettable...

I think Malta may just suprise everyone!

Next year in Ireland

(Anonymous)
I have been following your blog for many years now, keeping up with the show. Great work!

As always you are spot on. I am booking my tickets for Ireland next year; the twins are a sure winner. I even placed a bet on betfair... 26 to 1 says they take the trophy home.

Keep up the great work!

TOP 10 in second semifinal

(Anonymous)
My prediction for second semifinal
1. Sweden
2. Serbia
3. Ukraine
4. Turkey
5. Bosnia-Herzegovina
6. Estonia
7. Slovenia
8. Portugal
9. Lithuania
10. Georgia

Esc fan from Serbia

What an excellent blog! Just discovered it

(Anonymous)
Well I know where I will get my eurovision fix from next year. This is as good a blog as there is on any subject. Well laid out, entertaining etc etc... Some IT companies would learn fro you guys, seriously!!
Now as for The SF..I think it has to be better than Tuesday. No?
Well, your't there so I guess you know what your'e talking about

I agree on 8 out of your ten. I would take out Lithuania. It's just a boring song, regardless of the performance. And Portugal is too niche as you just said. So out
My bet is Slovakia because there is a bigger audience across Europe for that than for Fado, for example, and it's got a good position, jsut at the time when many people are just switching in. Also, unfortunaltely, Georgia, which is dreadful but in the ex Soviet camp, and also there is a sizeable Grgian diaspora too that people aren't necessarily aware of..

I really don't agree with the fact that people are putting Finland in one of the worst entries ...... Half of the ones that are considered FAVORITES (Greece, Cyprus, Moldova and a few others) have no WOW factor and they are poorly preformed ...... And if this was a music competition still, the show would look VERY DIFFERENT !!!!

I think it's just because everyone's expected SO MUCH more from Finland, 'cause the song is just magical. and we really haven't got what we've expected :( unfortunately

My Qualifiers for the 2nd Semi Final - in no particular order
1 Sweden
2 Ukraine
3 Serbia
4 Turkey
5 Slovenia
6 Macedonia
7 Lithuania
8 Bosnia & Herzegovina
9 Norway
10 Portugal or Estonia

Wish List
1 Portugal
2 Serbia
3 Slovenia
4 Sweden
5 Norway
6 Ukraine
7 Macedonia
8 Estonia
9 Bosnia & Herzegovina
10 Netherlands
Good luck to all participants and hope everyone enjoys the show tonight.

I have a feeling Bosnia will miss out. For some reason, I see it being overshadowed by Lithuania and I think it's not as good of a ballad as the other Balkan ones in this semi (Serbia, Macedonia, Slovenia). I see those three getting through.

I'm also going to go out on a limb and say Belarus squeaks in. Reminds me of Hungary in semi one, where it seems bland yet the lyrics and memorable and attracts the televoters.

So my 10 from this semi in random order:

Serbia
Sweden
Ukraine
Turkey
Macedonia
Portugal
Norway
Lithuania
Belarus
Slovenia

I agree that Bosnia might miss out. Everyone is assuming that it has a great draw just because it's late on. I'm less sure. This is a very ballad-heavy semi (esp. Balkan-ballad-heavy) and people may be tired of ballads by the time this comes on. Estonia is different in style from the other ballads and stands out from the circus numbers that precede it.

I also have a feeling that one fan-outsider (maybe Portugal, Estonia or Croatia) may have already garnered enough jury support to compensate for a relatively poor televote tonight. Don't forget that Portugal has a Balkan composer!

It's so tough to know. Song-wise, it's a fairly dull semi, but it's much more exciting in terms of potential upsets . . .

Isn't this fun? :-)


yes, it is :-))))
how about Sweden not getting through? Almost impossible, but an interesting scenario, which will add so much excitement to Grand Final ;-)

BTW, Which of Big 6 countries are voting tonight? i feel, that their votes might be crucial tonight.

Re: One shocker

(Anonymous)
France, UK and Germany if I remember correct :)

Re: One shocker

(Anonymous)
BIG6 voting: Germany,France and United Kingdom

Qualifiers

(Anonymous)
Sweden
Serbia
Norway
Turkey
B&H
Ukraine
FRYM

and places from 8-10th will be filled by these countries:
(Croatia, Slovenia, Belarus, EStonia, Lithuania)

Semi Final 2

(Anonymous)
I was lucky to get 10 out of 10 on first semi, I agree all of you that today it is more difficult to guess 10 qualifiers. Anyway my prediction for today : Serbia; Macedonia; Belarus; Ukraine; Sweden; Turkey; Estonia; Norway; Bosnia & Herzegovina and Lithuania.

9 out of 10!Impressive and certainly above average. Congrats!

Please you guys need to get to a TV cos you aint seeing or hearing what we are, there is no way in hell tonights semi can be worse than Tuesday, 90% of the song/performances were well below par, yes on video and recordings they sounded great but live most were awful, to prove the point, Jedward were a high point, also russias song isnt one its a mish mash of sounds and wails, its purely running on granny cuteness, is this what the ESC has come to?...If the Grannies need money for their church theres enough multi billionaires in Russia to help them.. cmon lets be real it can only get better tonight...I hope you guys read our responses I get the feeling you dont...

My prediction: Serbia, Slovenia, Macedonia, Sweden, Norway, Ukraine, Estonia, Lithuania, Turkey and Bosnia H.

I would like to see Slovakia in the final instead of Turkey or Lithuania.

Eurovision Jury results 2º Semi Final was leaked on twitter:

Serbia
Portugal
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Turkey
Ukraine
Sweden
Slovenia
Lithuania
Estonia
Macedonia

I honestly can't wait to see the result table for this Semi. If this doesn't end up being the closest run Semi so far, I'll be very surprised.

After getting 9 out of 10 correct in the first Semi (I picked Belgium over Albania), I'm far less confident about this one. Although I've gone for 9 out of Keith's chosen 10, which makes me feel a bit better.

In order of how certain I am:

Serbia
Ukraine
Sweden
Turkey
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Norway
Slovenia
Macedonia
Lithuania
Georgia

I came down to one out of Georgia, Portugal and Belarus. I'd love to be wrong and see Portugal qualify. It's gorgeous. I still cannot recall a single note of the Turkish entry, so that stage show had better be as good as reported.

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